The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)<\/a>\u2019s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), published in 2014, includes a comprehensive assessment of how the climate would change if global temperatures reached 2\u00b0C and the risks associated with this. Small island states and the least-developed countries are concerned the 2\u00b0C global temperature target will not effectively protect them from the impacts of climate change. These states argue the global temperature goal should be reduced from 2\u00b0C to 1.5\u00b0C. \u00a0As a result of these concerns, the Paris Agreement includes efforts to keep rising global temperatures at 1.5\u00b0C while affirming the 2\u00b0C global temperature target as the final upper limit.<\/p>\nThe IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5\u00b0C, published in 2018, shows that recent trends in emissions and commitments to domestic climate goals deviate from a track consistent with limiting warming to well below 2\u00b0C. To limit warming to 2\u00b0C, emissions must decline by about 25% by 2030 and reach net zero by about 2070. To limit warming to 1.5\u00b0C, global net greenhouse gas emissions from human activity must decline by about 45% from 2010 levels by 2030 and reach net zero by 2050. Increased and urgent mitigation ambition in the coming years, leading to a sharp decline in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 is essential. Otherwise, global warming will surpass 1.5\u00b0C in the following decades, leading to irreversible loss of the most fragile ecosystems, and crisis after crisis for the most vulnerable people and societies. Many regions have already surpassed the 1.5\u00b0C target.<\/p>\n
The IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5\u00b0C shows that limiting warming to 1.5\u00b0C is possible but would require unprecedented changes to our\u00a0society. It finds that there are clear benefits to keeping warming to 1.5\u00b0C rather than 2\u00b0C or higher. Every bit of warming matters. For example, about 14% of the world\u2019s population would be exposed to extreme heat waves once every five years if global temperature increases are held to 1.5\u00b0C; that percentage jumps to 37% with a rise of 2\u00b0C. Other consequences include higher climate-related risks for natural and human systems, often significantly so, depending on the rate, duration, and magnitude of warming along with geographic location, levels of development and vulnerability. These effects are also dependant on how humans respond (i.e., how they adapt and mitigate their options).<\/p>\n
The Sustainable Development Agenda, adopted in 2015 by UN member states, is a 15-year global framework centred on an ambitious set of 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The Agenda envisions a secure world free of poverty and hunger, with full and productive employment, access to quality education and universal health coverage, the achievement of gender equality and the empowerment of all women and girls, and an end to environmental degradation. The IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5\u00b0C shows that limiting warming to 1.5\u00b0C can go hand in hand with achieving global goals such as the Sustainable Development Agenda. Every year matters and every choice matters.<\/p>\n
[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_toggle title=”Predicted Consequences of Global Warming” open_toggle_text_color=”#FFFFFF” _builder_version=”4.14.7″ _module_preset=”default” title_text_color=”#FFFFFF” title_font=”|700|||||||” body_font=”|300|||||||” body_text_color=”#FFFFFF” use_background_color_gradient=”on” background_color_gradient_start=”#0c71c3″ background_color_gradient_end=”#2ebadd” background_color_gradient_overlays_image=”on” background_image=”https:\/\/onlineacademiccommunity.uvic.ca\/climatechangelitigation\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/5357\/2021\/07\/Wikimedia-Wind_Turbines2.jpg” background_blend=”multiply” border_radii=”on|10px|10px|10px|10px” locked=”off” global_colors_info=”{}”]<\/p>\n
Extreme heat
– With a 1.5\u00b0C increase, extreme hot days in the mid-latitudes will be 3\u00b0C hotter (5.4\u00b0F) than pre-industrial levels.
– With a 2\u00b0C increase, extreme hot days in the mid-latitudes will be about 4\u00b0C hotter (7.2\u00b0F) than pre-industrial levels.<\/p>\n
Rising sea levels
– With a 1.5\u00b0C increase, sea levels are projected to rise by 2100 by 0.26 to 0.77 meters (0.85-2.52 feet) relative to 1986-2005.
– With a 2\u00b0C increase, sea levels are projected to rise by 2100 by 0.36 to 0.87 meters (1.18-2.85 feet) relative to 1986-2005.<\/p>\n
Declining biodiversity
– With a 1.5\u00b0C increase, 6% of insects, 8% of plants, and 4% of vertebrates are projected by 2100 to lose more than half of their climatically determined geographic range.
– With a 2\u00b0C increase, those percentages double or triple: 18% of insects, 16% of plants, and 8% of vertebrates are projected by 2100 to lose more than half of their climatically determined geographic range.<\/p>\n
Melting Arctic sea ice
– With a 1.5\u00b0C increase, scientists project that the Arctic Ocean will become ice-free in the summer about once every 100 years.
– With a 2\u00b0C increase, the Arctic Ocean could become ice-free in the summer once every 10 years.<\/p>\n
At-risk coral reefs
– With a 1.5\u00b0C increase, coral reefs around the world are projected to decline further by 70-90%.
– With a 2\u00b0C increase, coral reefs are projected to decline by more than 99% \u2013 marking an irreversible loss in many marine and coastal ecosystems.<\/p>\n
Declining global fisheries
– With a 1.5\u00b0C increase, one global model cited by the U.N. report projects a decrease in global annual catch for marine fisheries of about 1.5 million tonnes.
– With a 2\u00b0C increase, the same model projects a decrease of more than 3 million tonnes.<\/p>\n
Rising Poverty
– Particular populations around the world are especially vulnerable to the consequences of continued warming (including some indigenous peoples, local communities dependent on agriculture, and those dependent on coastal resources for their livelihoods).
– Especially vulnerable places include Arctic ecosystems, dry-land regions, small island developing states, and the world\u2019s least developed nations.
– Limiting warming to 1.5\u00b0C could reduce the number of people worldwide who are exposed to climate-related risks and resulting poverty by hundreds of millions of people compared with a rise of 2\u00b0C.<\/p>\n
Health Impacts
– With a 2\u00b0C increase, compared with a 1.5\u00b0C increase, the number of heat-related deaths and the number of people infected with vector-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue fever are projected to increase
– A 2\u00b0C increase could also potentially lead to shifts in and expansion of the geographic range of vector-borne diseases.<\/p>\n
Food Impacts
– A 2\u00b0C increase is projected to lead to increased declines in yields of maize, rice, wheat, and potentially other cereal crops (livestock are also projected to be adversely affected).
– This outcome is particularly true for sub-Saharan Africa, Southeast Asia, and central and South America.<\/p>\n
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1.5\u00b0C and 2\u00b0C refer to the global temperature targets set out under Article 2 of the Paris Agreement. The Paris Agreement is an international climate agreement which aims to address the global threat of climate change by holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2\u00b0C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13819,"featured_media":0,"parent":70,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_et_pb_use_builder":"on","_et_pb_old_content":"WORK IN PROGRESS","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"class_list":["post-74","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/onlineacademiccommunity.uvic.ca\/climatechangelitigation\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/74","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/onlineacademiccommunity.uvic.ca\/climatechangelitigation\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/onlineacademiccommunity.uvic.ca\/climatechangelitigation\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/onlineacademiccommunity.uvic.ca\/climatechangelitigation\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13819"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/onlineacademiccommunity.uvic.ca\/climatechangelitigation\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=74"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/onlineacademiccommunity.uvic.ca\/climatechangelitigation\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/74\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1440,"href":"https:\/\/onlineacademiccommunity.uvic.ca\/climatechangelitigation\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/74\/revisions\/1440"}],"up":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/onlineacademiccommunity.uvic.ca\/climatechangelitigation\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/70"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/onlineacademiccommunity.uvic.ca\/climatechangelitigation\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=74"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}