Paris Agreement

The Paris Agreement[1] is an international agreement governed by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). It came into effect in 2016, and as of 2021 it has been adopted by 192 parties. One of its primary goals is to hold “the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and [pursue] efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels” (Article 2(1)(a)).

(Up-to-date information on signatories and special declarations made by certain countries can be found here.)

 

Nationally Determined Contributions

The Agreement aims to achieve its temperature ceiling and other related goals by requiring signatories to set nationally determined contributions (NDCs) (Article 4(2)). Unlike previous agreements on climate change, the Paris Agreement does not set binding reduction targets for member states. Instead, countries are responsible for setting their own specific targets with respect to slowing down climate change and meeting their commitments under the Agreement. NDCs can include, among other things, targeted reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and resilience goals.

Resilience goals

Resilience goals are targeted at increasing a country’s resilience to the effects of climate change which will occur even within the Agreement’s temperature ceiling goal. Resilience goals aim to strengthen a country’s ability to anticipate and adapt to environmental changes related to climate change, including acute events such as increased frequency and intensity of natural disasters and weather events, and chronic events, such as sea-level rising.

The Agreement sets out a timeline on which signatory countries must meet and set NDCs. Countries must set and communicate new NDCs every five years (Article 4(9)), with each new NDC being more ambitious than the last (Article 4(3)). Signatory countries published their initial NDCs when the Agreement came into force in 2016, and new NDCs were to be submitted by 2020. The next NDC-setting year is 2025. Before the next set of NDCs are made, parties must report on the progress made on prior NDCs. The UNFCCC then reviews evidence of progress and sets recommendations for how parties can attain more ambitious NDCs in the next round.

The original NDCs, set when the Agreement came into force, were criticized as being unable to reach the Agreement’s goals. By December 2020, NDCs had been updated by only 75 of the signatory countries whose greenhouse gas emissions collectively represent only 30% of the global greenhouse gas emissions.[2] Though these new NDCs were mostly more ambitious than the original NDCs, they still fell short of the Agreement’s goal of limiting global temperature rising above 2°C, and ideally 1.5°C.

All NDCs can be found at the interim NDC Registry.

Examples of NDCs

Together, China, the United States and the European Union contribute about 46% of the global greenhouse gas emissions. The ten largest greenhouse gas emitters, including the three largest emitters and countries like Russia, India and Canada, contribute approximately 68% of global emissions.

Canada:

Canada’s initial NDC in 2016 was to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 30% below 2005 levels by 2030.[3] Its updated NDC in 2021 is to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 40-45% below 2005 levels by 2030. Canada also stated in its submissions that its overarching goal is to reach net zero emissions by 2050, but this is not its official NDC. [4]

The United States:

The US’s initial NDC in 2016 was to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 2025 to 26-28% below 2005 levels, with best efforts to reach the higher 28% goal.[5] Its updated NDC in 2021, after rejoining the Agreement, is to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 to 50-52% below 2005 levels.[6]

The European Union:

The EU’s initial NDC was to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions of its member states by 2030 to at least 40% below 1990 levels.[7] Its updated NDC in 2020 is to reduce these emissions by 2030 to at least 55% below 1990 levels.[8]

The People’s Republic of China:

China published its initial NDCs in 2016. Its updated NDCs are similar, with some increases in ambition. China’s updated NDCs from 2021 are as follows:

  • To aim for an emissions peak before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060
  • To reduce emissions by 2030 to over 65% below 2005 levels
  • To “increase the share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy consumption to around 25%” by 2030
  • To “increase the forest stock volume by 6 billion cubic meters from the 2005 level” by 2030
  • To “bring its total installed capacity of wind and solar power to over 1.2 billion kilowatts by 2030.”[9]

The Russian Federation:

Russia did not formally join the Paris Agreement until 2019. Its first NDC, from 2020, is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 to 70% compared to 1990 levels (effectively reducing emissions to 30% lower than 1990 levels).[10]

The Republic of India:

Like China, India included a long list of initial NDCs in 2016. This list included the reduction of emissions by 2030 to 33-35% lower than 2005 levels.[11] India has yet to update its NDCs. 

Compliance

Under Article 6 of the Agreement, parties set and implement their NDCs based on voluntary cooperation. Parties cannot be formally reprimanded or punished for failing to reach a particular target, or for abandoning the project altogether. The United States has been a prime example of how parties to the Agreement are free to abide by their commitments or not. Former US President Donald Trump took steps throughout his administration to dismantle many of the systems of environmental regulation in the US, and, in 2020, withdrew the US from the Agreement. Though this withdrawal has been subsequently reversed by current US President Joe Biden, it is a good example of how the Agreement relies heavily on the voluntary cooperation of parties.

However, the Agreement may be enforceable by domestic institutions. In countries where the Agreement or the country’s NDCs have been integrated into domestic law, for example, governments may well have to account for failure to reach their targets. Even where the Agreement has not been explicitly integrated into domestic law, courts have been known to look to those international agreements of which their country is a signatory to determine if their state has met its obligations.

Domestic accountability

For example, in Urgenda Foundation v State of the Netherlands (Ministry of Infrastructure and the Environment), the Dutch Supreme Court upheld a ruling that the Dutch government’s emission reduction targets were inadequate. This decision was made in part due to the EU’s commitment to various international agreements including the Paris Agreement, especially with regards to the goal of a 1.5-2°C temperature increase ceiling. The court found that to meet those and other commitments, the government had to set more ambitious targets. For more information, please read a more detailed summary of the case here.

This is by no means a guaranteed outcome in every case. But it does indicate that domestic courts and institutions have a future role to play in indirect accountability for complying with the Paris Agreement.

Other Important Aspects of the Agreement

  • Article 2(2): Implementation of the Agreement is based on the principles of equity and common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capacities. This latter principle recognizes that though there is a common responsibility among all states for climate change, that responsibility is not shared equally. Some states bear more responsibility because of their proportional contributions to climate change, and because of their ability to effect change.
  • Article 4(1): Parties aim to reach an emissions peak as soon as possible and to rapidly reduce emissions following this peak. The article recognizes that peaking will take longer for developing member states.
  • Article 7(1): Parties commit to increasing their adaptive capacity, which includes enhancing resilience and reducing member states’ vulnerability to the impacts of climate change, all within the context of the temperature goal set in Article 2(1)(a).
  • Articles 9, 10, and 11 all function to encourage developed countries to help developing countries in the fight against climate change. This includes financial support, as well as sharing technology, information, and other resources. The articles also stress the previously recognized responsibility of developed countries to contribute more to adaptation and prevention policies due to their overproportionate contribution to emissions.
  • Article 9(8): Under this article, the Green Climate Fund (GCF), as part of the Financial Mechanism of the UNFCCC, can provide financial support for aspects of the Agreement. The GCF aims to support developing signatory countries to set and realize ambitious NDCs, by investing in countries and programs. For more information on how the GCF supports developing countries to realize their commitments under the Agreement, visit their website.

Next Steps

The next NDC-setting year is 2025. While most signatory countries have set increasingly ambitious targets, they still fall short of the Agreement’s goal of limiting global temperature rising to 2°C, and ideally to 1.5°C.[12] Even if current NDCs are met, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has estimated that we will see an estimated 2.7°C increase in temperature by the end of the 21st century.[13] If countries are to meet their commitments under the Agreement, the greatest emitters must continue to set more aggressive NDCs and stick to them.

Click here for some helpful visual representations of the impacts of the current NDCs.

Countries are beginning to enact legislation targeted at climate change, in an effort to meet their commitments under the Agreement. For example, the Canadian federal government recently enacted the Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act. The Act sets out a legally binding planning, reporting and assessment process to deliver upon Canada’s climate targets, including Canada’s NDC emission reduction target under the Paris Agreement. Unfortunately, there are no built-in consequences in the Act if the federal government fails to meet its targets. However, domestic legislation which recognizes commitments made under the Paris Agreement may help increase domestic transparency and accountability for achieving climate change targets.

Domestic pressure and accountability could push signatory countries to meet their NDCs under the Agreement and to start setting adequately ambitious targets.

 

[1] Paris Agreement, 12 December 2015, UNTS (entered into force 4 November 2016).

[2] UN Climate Change News, ““Climate Commitments Not On Track to Meet Paris Agreement Goals” as NDC Synthesis Report is Published” (26 February 2021), online: <https://unfccc.int/news/climate-commitments-not-on-track-to-meet-paris-agreement-goals-as-ndc-synthesis-report-is-published>.

[3] Canada First NDC (Archived), Canada, 2016, online: <https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/ndcstaging/PublishedDocuments/Canada%20First/INDC%20-%20Canada%20-%20English.pdf>.

[4] Canada First NDC (updated submission), Canada, 2021, online: <https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/ndcstaging/PublishedDocuments/Canada%20First/Canada%27s%20Enhanced%20NDC%20Submission1_FINAL%20EN.pdf>.

[5] United States of America First NDC (Archived), United States of America, 2016, online: <https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/ndcstaging/PublishedDocuments/United%20States%20of%20America%20First/U.S.A.%20First%20NDC%20Submission.pdf>.

[6] United States of America First NDC (after rejoining the Paris Agreement), United States of America, 2021, online: <https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/ndcstaging/PublishedDocuments/United%20States%20of%20America%20First/United%20States%20NDC%20April%2021%202021%20Final.pdf>.

[7] European Union First NDC (Archived), European Union, 2016, online: <https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/ndcstaging/PublishedDocuments/European%20Union%20First/LV-03-06-EU%20INDC(Archived).pdf>.

[8] European Union First NDC (Updated submission), European Union, 2021, online: <https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/ndcstaging/PublishedDocuments/European%20Union%20First/EU_NDC_Submission_December%202020.pdf>.

[9] China First NDC (Updated submission), People’s Republic of China, 2021, online: <https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/ndcstaging/PublishedDocuments/China%20First/China’s%20Achievements,%20New%20Goals%20and%20New%20Measures%20for%20Nationally%20Determined%20Contributions.pdf>.

[10] Russian Federation First NDC, Russian Federation, 2020, online: <https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/ndcstaging/PublishedDocuments/Russian%20Federation%20First/NDC_RF_eng.pdf>.

[11] India First NDC, Republic of India, 2016, online: <https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/ndcstaging/PublishedDocuments/India%20First/INDIA%20INDC%20TO%20UNFCCC.pdf>.

[12] Lindsay Maizland, “Global Climate Agreements: Successes and Failures”, Council on Foreign Relations (last updated November 17 2021), online: <https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/paris-global-climate-change-agreements>.

[13] UNFCCC Secretariat, Nationally determined contributions under the Paris Agreement: Synthesis report by the secretariat, UNFCCC, 3rd session (17 September 2021), online: <https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/cma2021_08_adv_1.pdf>.