1.5°/2° Target

1.5°C and 2°C refer to the global temperature targets set out under Article 2 of the Paris Agreement. The Paris Agreement is an international climate agreement which aims to address the global threat of climate change by holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. The international community agrees (based on scientific assessment), that if global temperatures are kept below the 2°C global temperature target, as an upper limit, we can reduce the risks and impacts of climate change.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), published in 2014, includes a comprehensive assessment of how the climate would change if global temperatures reached 2°C and the risks associated with this. Small island states and the least-developed countries are concerned the 2°C global temperature target will not effectively protect them from the impacts of climate change. These states argue the global temperature goal should be reduced from 2°C to 1.5°C.  As a result of these concerns, the Paris Agreement includes efforts to keep rising global temperatures at 1.5°C while affirming the 2°C global temperature target as the final upper limit.

The IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C, published in 2018, shows that recent trends in emissions and commitments to domestic climate goals deviate from a track consistent with limiting warming to well below 2°C. To limit warming to 2°C, emissions must decline by about 25% by 2030 and reach net zero by about 2070. To limit warming to 1.5°C, global net greenhouse gas emissions from human activity must decline by about 45% from 2010 levels by 2030 and reach net zero by 2050. Increased and urgent mitigation ambition in the coming years, leading to a sharp decline in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 is essential. Otherwise, global warming will surpass 1.5°C in the following decades, leading to irreversible loss of the most fragile ecosystems, and crisis after crisis for the most vulnerable people and societies. Many regions have already surpassed the 1.5°C target.

The IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C shows that limiting warming to 1.5°C is possible but would require unprecedented changes to our society. It finds that there are clear benefits to keeping warming to 1.5°C rather than 2°C or higher. Every bit of warming matters. For example, about 14% of the world’s population would be exposed to extreme heat waves once every five years if global temperature increases are held to 1.5°C; that percentage jumps to 37% with a rise of 2°C. Other consequences include higher climate-related risks for natural and human systems, often significantly so, depending on the rate, duration, and magnitude of warming along with geographic location, levels of development and vulnerability. These effects are also dependant on how humans respond (i.e., how they adapt and mitigate their options).

The Sustainable Development Agenda, adopted in 2015 by UN member states, is a 15-year global framework centred on an ambitious set of 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The Agenda envisions a secure world free of poverty and hunger, with full and productive employment, access to quality education and universal health coverage, the achievement of gender equality and the empowerment of all women and girls, and an end to environmental degradation. The IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C shows that limiting warming to 1.5°C can go hand in hand with achieving global goals such as the Sustainable Development Agenda. Every year matters and every choice matters.