Michael Dixon – University of Waterloo

Presenter: Michael Dixon (University of Guelph)

Title: What we learned about goal gradients and near-misses by studying Wordle

Abstract:
As individuals near a desired goal, they become more motivated. When thwarted in their goal pursuit, frustration and negative affect ensue. Slot-machine research indicates that near-misses (being one symbol away from a jackpot) are highly arousing and frustrating. We used the popular game Wordle to illustrate goal gradient and near-miss effects. In Wordle, an individual tries to guess a five-letter word in six attempts. Wordle gives feedback — letters turn green, orange, or grey depending on how closely guesses match the target word. By analyzing feedback across guesses, players can gauge whether they are approaching or thwarted in their goal pursuit. Wordle also contains near-misses (guesses only one letter away from the target). When feedback indicated players were approaching their goal, positive affect and motivation significantly increased compared to thwarted outcomes which increased frustration. Near-misses were significantly more arousing than other outcomes. The first appearance of a near-miss (an “approaching” outcome) led to the highest motivation of all outcomes as well as high positive affect.  If the next guess revealed the same four green letters that they had just guessed (a “thwarted” near-miss), motivation and positive affect dropped, and frustration peaked.  In goal-gradient contexts like Wordle, a near-miss predicts that a “win” is imminent, whereas in slot machines most players realize that near-misses are simply random outcomes that do not predict future outcomes and react to these outcomes with frustration.  A small minority of gamblers have erroneous cognitions about near misses.  They mistakenly believe that slots near-misses mean that a jackpot win is imminent. These players react to near-misses as though they are rewarding, as opposed to frustrating outcomes.  We propose that these players misapply the heuristics of goal gradient situations (like Wordle) to gambling scenarios like slot machines. We propose they experience the same spike in motivation as shown by the Wordle players, which leads to longer play, mounting losses, and more severe gambling problems.