James Clay

Presenter: James Clay

Title: The life and times of the J-Shaped Curve: Is moderate drinking healthy?

Abstract:
The notion that moderate alcohol consumption promotes health has significantly shaped public perception and policy, often illustrated through the “J-shaped curve.” This curve suggests that moderate drinkers have a lower risk of mortality compared to abstainers and heavy drinkers, contributing to the widely accepted belief that low-volume alcohol use could be beneficial. However, recent research challenges this view, questioning the methodology, biases, and vested interests underpinning the existing evidence.
This talk will explore the history and evolution of the J-shaped curve and critically evaluate the validity of its claims. Key topics include the limitations of using “abstainers” as a control group, confounding health factors, and systematic errors in alcohol consumption measurement. I will also overview some of my recent work, including two systematic reviews and meta-analyses, and a content analysis, revealing how industry influences have influenced our understanding about the health risks of alcohol consumption.
This talk ultimately aims to deliver a clear, evidence-based understanding of whether moderate drinking offers health benefits, while highlighting the public health and policy implications of this research.