Daniel Bernstein (KPU)

Presenter: Daniel Bernstein (Kwantlen Polytechnic University)

Title: Longitudinal Hindsight Bias

Abstract:
Hindsight bias occurs when learning outcomes to uncertain events (e.g., elections, wars, gambles) changes how we remember our naïve beliefs about those outcomes (e.g., “I knew it!”). We studied hindsight bias across the child to adult lifespan (age range: 3–94 years) across several time points from 2015-2024. At each time point, participants completed a Baseline phase in which they identified blurred objects that slowly clarified. Later in a Hindsight phase, participants first learned the object’s identity and then estimated when a naïve peer would be able to identify the object as it clarified. We calculated hindsight bias as the difference between the average identification point in the Baseline phase and Hindsight phase. Our results replicated cross-sectional studies showing that preschoolers exhibited more hindsight bias than older children and younger adults. Longitudinal results revealed that hindsight bias improved among preschoolers and remained relatively stable thereafter