People must get away from the idea that serious work is restricted to beating to death a well-defined problem in a narrow discipline, while broadly integrative thinking is relegated to cocktail parties… the task of integration is insufficiently respected.

M. Gell-Mann, The Quark and the Jaguar

Energy Systems Analysis

Understanding complete energy systems is critical for rationally assessing and evaluating alternatives. Although an energy conversion technology may appear attractive when examined in isolation, systemic feedbacks may suggest otherwise. The value of a technology is determined by its role and relationship to the economic, social and technical environment in which it is deployed. One example is renewable energy; temporal variations, unpredictability, and relatively low energy densities, can reduce value particularly when penetration is increased. Energy systems modeling identifies feasible transition pathways to resilient, cost-effective, and environmentally compatible energy systems.

Electrification

The challenges facing electrical system planners are many, but uncertainty about future policy, costs, and technology performance is perhaps greater than at any other time. Strategic positioning to address carbon emissions throughout the economy is a complex problem with a significant impact on future electrical systems. Besides energy, the technical services provided by an electricity system consist of two other general categories: capacity and flexibility. Capacity describes the ability of a generator to meet demand at a given time. Flexibility is a generic phrase to describe the ability to start, stop, ramp up or down, or be relied on to respond to planned and unforeseen changes in supply, transmission, or demand.

As we look forward to a decarbonized future, the importance of capacity and flexibility in the electrical system grows. While solar and wind are excellent energy supply technologies they typically provide little capacity and, at high penetrations, create demand for additional system flexibility.  The desire to use low-variable cost, low-carbon generators, and an increase in net-load variability is leading to new types of electricity markets. We are now seeing new capacity markets as well as shorter term energy imbalance markets as ways to manage low energy costs and variability. Tremendous uncertainty exists; however, the future need for resources which provide flexibility appears certain. 

Storage

Electrical storage covers a range of temporal scales and energy capacities. With an increased focus on electrification throughout all sectors, there are numerous opportunities for storage to facilitate the delivery of cost-effective and reliable electricity. Of particular interest to utilities, is the potential to reduce and defer infrastructure investments to maintain system services. Storage systems can mitigate the need for expansion of transmission and distribution system capacities by shifting loads, reducing peaks, and coordinating demand so that existing capacity is better utilized. 

The value of storage is determined by technology performance, cost, and the services that may be provided when integrated into the grid. Simple metrics such as levelized cost are insufficient. The creation of suitable reduced-form models that capture relevant physics, but are computational tractable in electrical system models is an active area of research. Surrogate models of fuel cells, flow batteries, other unconventional storage systems are being developed for incorporation into power system planning and operation studies.